EUR/USD stayed in consolidation below 1.1075 last week and outlook is unchanged. In this article, we’ll detail EUR/USD Weekly Technical Forecast for Week 17, 2023.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook
Initial bias remains neutral this week. Expect further rise as long as 1.0830 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.1075 will resume larger up trend to 1.1273 fibonacci level. Break there will target 61.8% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1032 from 1.0515 at 1.1441. However, firm break of 1.0830 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper decline to 1.0711 support instead.
The Bigger Picture
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. Sustained break there will solidify the case of bullish trend reversal and target 1.2348 resistance next (2021 high). This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.0515 support holds, even in case of deeper pull back.
The Long Term
In the longer term picture, perceive price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) as a consolidation pattern only, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, expect up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as 55 month EMA (now at 1.3003) holds.
EUR/USD Sentiment poll
The Instaforex Nigeria Forecast Poll suggest EUR/USD will extend its consolidative phase this week. The pair is seen at around 1.1000, with an equal number or bullish and bearish bets. Bears dominate the monthly perspective, as 59% of the polled experts believe the pair will trade at lower levels. Perceive, on average, at 1.0893. Still, the decline seems corrective and in the quarterly view, bulls re-take control, represented by 52% of experts and with an average target of 1.1040.
The Overview chart shows that the near-term moving average turned modestly lower, although the longer ones extended their advances into fresh multi-month highs. More relevantly, speculative interest continued to lift the potential base of the future range. In the monthly view, the pair is not seen below 1.0600, while for the three-month perspective, the base stands now at 1.0500.
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