Interim top confirmed, 0.7000 at risk
The AUD/USD pair kept falling in the last few days, reaching a fresh multi-week low of 0.7248 on Friday, to close the trading week a handful of pips above it. Global stocks traded dully throughout the week, collapsing on Friday, dragging the commodity-linked currency down with them. The pair enjoyed a couple of positive days mid-week as Wall Street earnings season´s surprises underpinned indexes. In this article, we’ll detail AUD/USD Weekly Technical Forecast for Week 13, 2023.
AUD/USD Technical Outlook
The AUD/USD pair is nearing the 61.8% retracement of the 2022 rally between 0.6966 and 0.7660 at 0.7233. The weekly chart shows that the pair has accelerated its slump below its 100 SMA, while the 20 SMA heads marginally higher around the mentioned Fibonacci support level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, head south within negative levels, with the RSI already below its midline, hinting at a steeper decline ahead.
The daily chart shows that, after failing to overcome its 20 SMA, the pair plummeted, and the indicator turned lower. The pair is also trading below a flat 200 SMA, while the 100 SMA heads marginally higher, a handle of pips below the current level. Technical indicators, however, head lower, almost vertically, nearing oversold readings, reflecting the ongoing slide and hinting at a bearish continuation.
A break below the 0.7230 price zone could lead to a test of the 0.7100 figure en route to the year low at 0.6966. The immediate Fibonacci resistance level is at 0.7315, followed by the 38.2% retracement of the aforementioned rally at around 0.7400.
AUD/USD sentiment poll
The Instaforex Forecast Poll indicates that AUD/USD could fall in the near term, but the longer-term views are still unclear as there’s just a minor advantage from bulls and the pair is seen seesawing around the 0.7300 figure for the most.
The Overview chart reflects the current negative sentiment, as the weekly moving average heads firmly lower. The one-month moving average is slowly turning south, but overall neutral, while the quarterly one is still flat.
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